At least 50 tries, so far, and still unrecognized. I even soldered TX and RX directly to the pcb, to make sure it was definitely making contact! What a waste of an evening.
On the plus side, reset is definitely doing something, and taking the programming jumper off does something, so it's not bricked. Just an awful cable, I guess. Hopefully the CP2102 cable that's on it's way will work better (I hardly ever see people having issues with those)