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Old 21 August 2011, 22:17   #19
Photon's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Hult / Sweden
Posts: 4,296
Originally Posted by desiv View Post
Oh. I get it. Now if someone says they were impressed, they are fanboys...
You're clever.

That's way too suspicious of you. No, that's not what I meant all and, and I hate such games. I'm even a bit of a fan of Dave - just for being involved in Amiga hardware dev. "Fanboy" is your exaggeration from "fan". I do confess being a fanboy of Jay Miner's but if this ubercool dude was here today, I'm still not so sure he could predict future techs, definitely not which ones will be anything but a footnote.

Originally Posted by desiv View Post
If that someone is your buddy at work who has worked on PCs for years, then "no", it's not the same..
Well, that's just it. The Q & A reminded me of exactly that, the thing about this age is that there are no real upsets or secret tech being worked on that's not leaked in an orderly manner. Huge companies do the math, then have the necessary tech dev done and tell standards institutes what will be standard in future, all kept secret by NDAs, then it's worked on, and then it's finished.

So future predictions are best done by people with insight into company project budgets, mass component purchase figures, purchases of asian factories rather than "some really cool tech info". That's why most such questions are answered on the PC buddy level even by experts, that's not anyone's fault.

Any cool gadget/invention/peripheral that should get real attention at a CES is quickly either bought up+converted into a big brand name product or prior art prosecuted/bought up+ditched. This gives the companies with big money the edge, so they can keep delivering incrementally newer tech. And as we know, at least when standards have not been established for years, this buying up of tech sometimes brings nice new tech to us In the Asia markets and niche markets there are still some progressive companies having success.

This cynical reign didn't start now; the first real inkling came with criminal acts committed in the 80s and 90s but took real hold around the failed battle between OpenGL and DirectX in 2001-2002, and as long as there is big money in computers and software, I can't see it ending until an international law is passed that outlaws using economic power and resources as nuclear weapons between countries and markets, the US Patent laws comply with international law, and laws are passed to ensure that big and small companies are equal before the law.

I don't see many more attempts to break existing laws to grab market share in the future though, for a number of reasons. That's a comfort, at least. And there will be exceptions, mainly on the software side, for a while yet.

But I digress. (And perhaps depress.)

This is it, though.

Last edited by Photon; 21 August 2011 at 22:26.
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