Somehow I don’t think the current consoles and PCs will have a huge retrogaming-base within a few years time. A couple of reasons exist for this:
No small scene:
The 8-bit and 16-bit scene emerged in the Eighties and beginning Nineties. Joe Public wasn’t interested in gaming and computers in general and left it to the ‚geeks‘. During this time the number of users was small but a real community existed. I for instance visited every month an Amiga meeting, copied the latest games and played a match of Dynablaster
. The Amiga was not a computer, it was a lifestyle
. Nowadays everyone owns a console and PC. Computers have become anonymous consumer-products and there is no real scene.
Next year will mark the 10th anniversary of the first decent 3D-FPS: Doom
. Where are the retro-addicts with their sites dedicated to games based on the first 3D-engines? They can (apart from a single soul) nowhere to be found. I still don’t know the exact reason for this, but I suspect the ongoing innovation of 3D-engines is debit to this. The chapter of 3D-engines has not ended yet.
Lack of innovation:
Yesteryear’s software is programmed by a single bedroom-programmer who does not have to take a time- and money-limit into account. The most creative games were programmed back in the Eighties. Now try to come up with something original in the 21st century: It has to be financially feasible and not be too risky. This kills off every creative idea. Of all games produced the last ten years, very few deserve the title ‘Classic’ because they cannot be distinguished from each other.
I cannot imagine kiddies from now will emulate the current monotonous trash called ‘games’ in future Emulators.
I think retrogaming will exist also in the near future although the userbase will decrease because of the current lack of innovating softwaretitles.